Maintenance: The not-so-glamorous byproduct of preparedness

djalley 24Apr2019

There’s a thrill coming home with a new firearm, a new pack, a new radio, etc. Preparedness aficionados love new gear associated with their lifestyle just as much as a golfer loves his new putter or your rich dentist loves his new Corvette on track day.

Even before the thrill of coming home with New Toy, we tend to have a great time comparing specs, reading reviews, and optimizing our kit for its intended role. What optics will work best on the new Glock? What kind of range can I expect from this Yaesu handheld? What’s the best steel for my new pocket folder?

What is not as glamorous or exciting is the maintenance required for such things… For most, it isn’t even considered. But, with each piece of new gear, we must carefully ascertain maintenance needs it will require.

Preparedness must be as much about the learning of, and maintenance of gear, as it is acquiring new gear or new skills.

I recently moved to a 13 acre parcel of land in the ‘far suburbs’. This was done to get away from HOAs, provide a more semi-rural experience for my son, and to start down a more self-resilient lifestyle. I am slowly doing that.

In this effort, I needed to get a compact utility tractor. This is the class of tractors that have a front end loader, and can pull basic ground-engaging implements like rakes, rotary cutters, a rear blade, and more. It was the most phenomenal New Toy I’ve ever purchased, and it changed my capabilities from “I’ll never be able to get that done” to “Eh, gimme 10 minutes…”. In the first year of ownership, I cleared well over an acre of very heavy underbrush in an ancient apple orchard to a cleared area with the apple trees remaining. This year, I’ll likely clear another couple acres. I also cleared snow from my 0.33 mile driveway and private road, moved multiple cords of firewood, and more.

To a preparedness enthusiast (I despise the word ‘prepper’) this tractor represents so much capability to turn my land into an investment that will serve my family and further my goals to a resilient lifestyle. Running it is fun, getting work done on it is beneficial, and the experiences of doing these things ourselves is very fulfilling. Imparting this can-do mentality to my son is priceless.

The tractor takes maintenance. Every year I have to change oil, oil filters, check hydraulic fluid, grease over a dozen joints, adjust settings, clean air filters, and more. Every few years I have to change over 10 gallons of hydraulic fluid and a filter, bleed these systems, maintain the diesel filters, and other things. The attachments need basic maintenance as well. It doesn’t take a ton of time to do any one of these things, but it does take some. Doing them all can be a day of work.

Likewise, I have that handheld Yaesu radio in my pack as well as a backup battery for my smartphone. I have to remember to keep them charged. The optics on my bug out rifle? I need to test them and swap batteries at regular intervals. Got your water bottle full on your Get Home Bag? How long is that good for?

Organizing maintenance

If you’ve taken our Emergency Preparedness 1 class, you’ll remember that each threat component should have a corresponding matrix of activities. (If you haven’t taken our Emergency Preparedness 1 class, take this time to sign up here.) In each category, we do a pre-threat rundown on things to get, get trained on, and maintain so you’re prepared for an event. The maintenance must be part of that pre-threat rundown.

Power failure threat matrix

Here is a page from my threat matrix for power failure. As an aside, I am still working on my threat matrices as well since I moved, and am using it as an opportunity to learn Microsoft OneNote. OneNote is an excellent program for data organization and after the ‘structure’ of the program is understood, is intuitive and versatile. As I transpose info from my previous Excel sheets and reassess for my new home, I am populating more in this OneNote file.

In my Power Failure threat matrix, my task of “Ensure flashlights remain charged” is a daily, weekly, and semiannual task. Why? My tactical flashlight gets tested every morning as I put it in my pocket. Just a short on/off to ensure it works. Weekly, my bedside flashlight gets recharged. Semiannually, the batteries in these get replaced whether they need it or not. These entries in my threat matrix get added to a Maintenance page in the program where they are all listed out; all maintenance items from all tabs. I then have a Log tab where I record what I did for each (though I tend to keep daily and weekly items off it, just too much documentation for no benefit).

Once the threat matrices are complete for all threat components, we’re left with a list of what items require maintenance. Having this list is nice, but we still have to make it a part of our routine.

I’ve opted to use Microsoft To-Do on my iPhone. It allows for tasks, subtasks, recurring tasks, and more. It is comprehensive enough for in-depth task details but still very user friendly. Microsoft did a great job with this. If you have a preferred task manager that you use, go for it. I highly recommend one that allows recurring tasks, though, since that is the objective of this exercise.

Screenshot of Microsoft To-Do task manager

It can take some time creating useful To-Do’s from each maintenance item, but once they’re in your list, it is far easier to make emergency preparedness maintenance items a part of your routine.

Another important thing to remember is to create a Go-Bag or Get-Home-Bag inventory as well, and ensure you have covered maintenance items from that. In my GHB, I have the Yaesu handheld radio, as well as a battery back up for my iPhone. I have the recurring task of charging these weekly. I have some freeze-dry food that I swap out annually, and a water bottle that I cycle the water on weekly (it is not commercially sealed). In my full Bug out Bag I have more items, including testing and swapping optics and sights batteries.

Take away:

Is any of this as glamorous as posting your new AR-15? No. Is it as cool as Instagramming yourself eating a grub or bowdrilling a fire? We prepare to help ensure an uncertain future is at least a stable future through risk reduction. As such, it is just as important to pay attention to upkeep on the preps you already have as it is to get new preps. Without proper maintenance, your preps are in an uncertain state. Just like the condition we are hoping to avoid.

Precious metals in a post-SHTF economy

djalley 08Apr2019

This topic has come up more frequently as people watch the current hyperinflation situation in Venezuela. The concern is “how can I still have money and the things I need even if the money system has failed?” For family leaders who want to ensure their circle’s well being, this is an understandable concern and a topic worthy of discussion. Often, gold and silver are looked to to maintain buying power in a disaster. But is it the case?

First, understanding what is happening with the money is important. To do this, a basic understanding of economics is required. Imagine a good or service that is “fixed” in value. Supply and demand do not waver, and the process to make it is constant. If this “ideal good” value is fixed, then any price changes are entirely due to fluctuations in the value of the money used to purchase it. Likewise, imagine an “ideal currency”, which does not change in value at all. Any fluctuations in a product’s price can be entirely attributed to changes in its supply and demand.

In economics, the value of one is usually fixed so that the other can be studied. In the real world, neither is fixed. The value of currency is going up/down and the supply and demand of a good is going up/down.

In Venezuela, hyperinflation is occurring. The population has lost faith in its money, while goods and services continue to rise in cost. When money is measured by weight and not by face value, there’s a problem. This picture shows a street in Caracas literally littered with useless money.

Proponents of precious metals will often tell you that gold and silver are a great way to protect against this. They are partially correct. Physically held gold and silver (avoid certificates which ‘claim ownership’ of precious metals held at a remote vault somewhere) are an excellent hedge against inflation and hyperinflation. After the hyperinflation event when the currency is stabilized or a new currency introduced, the value of gold and silver is likely to have about the same value after the event that it had before the event. In other words, if you had about $20k (in US dollars) worth of silver before the Venezuelan bolivar started tanking, and the new money introduced after the regime change (maybe the nuevo bolivar?) is stable, after you sell your precious metals you’ll have about $20k USD in the new currency (minus transaction costs, and assuming the price of silver remained relatively unchanged). Wealth retention.

Money is important because it is wealth representation in between trades. It is ‘potential goods/services’. If you have 2 rifles and need 3 pigs and a goat, the odds of finding a guy with 3 pigs and a goat that also needs 2 rifles is minuscule. If you and a buyer of rifles agree that money is ‘wealth potential’ AND you and the pig and goat seller agree money is ‘wealth potential’, then the transaction can occur.

The issue is that most people do not understand the ‘wealth potential’ of precious metals, and as such seek to avoid using it. If you weren’t a diamond expert and someone tries to trade you a diamond, would you trade 3 rifles and 200 rounds of ammo for it? If you can’t tell the difference between a diamond and an old Coke bottle shard that someone worked over with a Dremel, odds are you would not make the transaction. To make a during-SHTF trade, you would need:

  • An item you have extra of, worth trading.
  • Finding a person needing that item.
  • Peaceably making contact to conduct the trade.
  • An agreed upon medium of trade (currency or other goods).
A pile of old circulated worn collectible silver dimes and quarters. Could be used for silver bullion themes as well. Taken with a Canon 7D DSLR.

A lot of prepper fantasy involves people quickly and seamlessly transitioning from a common currency into “silver face” (the face value of the older 90% silver coins that used to be US currency). Using non-collectable pre-1964 dimes and other partial silver currency. The idea is that somehow normalcy will be maintained during a SHTF event (shit hits the fan) despite the USD demise. In reality, silver face has minimal ‘wealth potential’ recognition outside of preparedness circles.

Now that the mechanism of money has been discussed, the topic of goods and services must be discussed. Assuming a common currency between a buyer and seller of an item has been established, a during-SHTF analysis of goods and services must be done.

After the Sandy Hook Elementary School shooting occurred, the firearm industry experienced a ‘SHTF’ scenario as people feared government would ban the AR-15 (and other defensive carbines), magazines, and ammunition for it. The demand for these items increased significantly, and manufacturers could not meet it, causing a reduction in supply. An AR-15 PMag, the $15-bill of the gun world, suddenly jumped in price to $100, and were still not available on the market.

Before every major snowstorm in Michigan, families gas up the SUV and buy all the bread and milk. The shelves are bare. This is a mere local event with minimal long term potential for disruption.

One story from Venezuela is a family selling a 2 ounce gold family heirloom ring. As of today (08APR2019), that would be $2600 USD. The family got 3 weeks of food and water for this ring, and counted themselves fortunate they found someone able to make the trade. A ‘thrifty’ food cost for 3 weeks in the USA is about $400 for a family of 4. The food was 6.5 times higher in cost, but for the price, it was available using this mode of payment.

At this point, it is challenging to find someone willing to trade a good or service for bolivars, regardless of quantity. Food is unavailable for this currency.

The fact is, that even with an agreed upon currency, the supply of goods is usually highly limited or completely nonexistent. The lack of supply, and presence of significant demand, coupled with a near-worthless currency, is the nightmare scenario of hyperinflation.

In short, precious metals can be used during-SHTF, but one must expect a commensurate increase in the cost of goods and that they will not be getting good value for their money. If developing a family preparedness strategy, precious metals have their place in investment, but food, water, the means of resiliency, protection (both use of force training as well as medical training) most likely far outweigh the priority of investing in precious metals. It should be well-understood that this investment is largely for post-SHTF recovery and not during-SHTF versatility.